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Insider

Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 2

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Last week, we successfully took advantage of an entire summer's worth of NFL analysis to bet on undervalued teams perceived as "bad" by public and recreational bettors. Similar to how many bettors form opinions on teams based solely on offseason media reports, public bettors often overreact to only one week's worth of data, as well. Is Jared Goff actually good? Did the selection of Patrick Mahomes motivate Alex Smith to become John Elway? Is Eli Manning done?

Could it all be true? Sure, but in reality, one game isn't enough to determine how good each NFL team is, even though public bettors will make wagers as if it is.

For savvy contrarian bettors, this is another chance to let overreactions to very small sample sizes provide valuable wagering opportunities by pinpointing which games public bettors are hammering and taking advantage of the additional value this creates.

To help unearth which NFL Week 2 games are offering value, I fired up our Bet Labs data analysis software and created a betting system with a 68.2 percent against the spread (ATS) win rate, plus-14.83 units won and a return on investment (ROI) of 33.7 percent that takes advantage of teams that underperformed in Week 1 and are being avoided by public bettors.