Derek Carr posted a Total QBR of 9.7 today. That's the third-lowest single-game Total QBR of his NFL career.
At one point today the Packers had just a 4.1% chance to beat the Browns. Green Bay came back to win in overtime.
Here's how the race for the No. 1 overall pick shifted over the course of the 1 p.m. games today. Browns have it all but locked up now.
Our live playoff probabilities now give the Panthers a 76% chance to reach the postseason after beating the Vikings today. That's up 11% from this morning.
Andrew Sendejo's fourth quarter interception increased the Vikings' chance to win by 38%, the biggest swing play of the day so far.
Eagles fans ought to be keeping a close eye on the Vikings-Panthers game.
Though it didn't work, our win probability model agrees with Mike McCarthy's decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the Browns' 10-yard line in the third quarter. Attempting a field goal would have reduced the Packers' chance to win by 2.4%. The break even point of an expected conversion to make it worth it was 44.5% and the league average in that situation is 56.6%.
The Seahawks are slight underdogs today in a game that is quite important to their playoff chances.
Here's how the AFC West race has shifted so far today. Chiefs up to a 70% chance to win the division.
Nathan Peterman's touchdown pass to Kelvin Benjamin increased the Bills' chance to win today by 20%. Of course, with the snow probably depressing the expected scoring in that game, the touchdown may have even been more important than that.
Though the Bengals were at their own 29-yard line at the time, Marvin Lewis' decision to punt on fourth-and-1 in the first quarter reduced Cincinnati's chance to win by 2.2%, according to our win probability model.
The Eagles and Rams have a 32% chance to meet each other at some point in the playoffs.
The Vikings and Panthers are playing today. There is a 12% chance they meet again in the divisional round of the playoffs.
The Chiefs face by far the most playoff leverage of any team this week. They have a 70% chance to beat the Raiders today.
The Chargers are now the seventh-best team in football, according to FPI, and are solid favorites against Washington today.
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook currently has Houston favored by 2 over San Francisco. FPI strongly disagrees with that line, estimating a Houston win by over 10 points today. And yes, it knows Jimmy Garoppolo is playing.
In terms of chance to make the playoffs, the Panthers face the highest leverage of any NFC team today.
The Falcons' win over the Saints last night increased their chance to make the playoffs from 37% to 52%. It also caused the Panthers' chances to drop from 71% to 63%.
Having likely one less win on its résumé due to its cancelled game with Montana, UCLA's chances to make the NCAA tournament dropped from 34 percent to 29 percent per ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI).
The Chiefs' chance to reach the playoffs would drop to 29% with a loss to the Raiders this week.
West Virginia is averaging 75 possessions per game, 12th fastest among major conference teams. Virginia averages 62 per game, the slowest pace in the country. WVU played at UVA's pace last night (62 possessions) and still won by 7.
With its dominating win over Gonzaga, Villanova is now viewed as the strongest team going forward per espn.com/bpi .
Villanova has at least a 50 percent chance to win each of its remaining games but just a 0.9 percent chance to finish the regular season undefeated per espn.com/bpi . It's toughest non-road game is tonight against BPI No. 15 Gonzaga in the Jimmy V Classic.
The Patriots (28%) are once again the most likely team to win the Super Bowl, per FPI. They are followed by the Eagles (22%), Vikings (14%), Steelers (13%) and Saints (8%).
FPI still believes the Chiefs (58%) are the favorites to win the AFC West, followed by the Chargers (33%) and the Raiders (8%).